The authors

An interview with the authors of Dance with Chance

First published in the INSEAD alumni newsletter, March 2009.

Who should read this book?

Anil Gaba: Anyone. And their family. And their dog if he's particularly gifted. If you're interested in controlling your health, wealth, professional success, happiness and more, then you should read this book. I suppose I would say that, wouldn't I? But I really believe the book's central message is important. That is, often, by giving up control and acknowledging the role of chance in your life, you can gain more control.

Is it relevant to anyone in particular then?

AG: Needless to say, if you're a control freak in any domain of your life then it is even more important to read this book. Similarly, if you ever feel overwhelmed by uncertainty around your life, the book can provide some tips on how to live more comfortably with the uncertainty. But really, it's particularly relevant to people who are involved in making decisions of any kind.

You're all business school professors. So why did you choose to write a book about luck and not business?

Robin Hogarth: First, anybody working in business spends a good part of their life in that activity and so, if you are in business, you cannot really separate your life from your business. Second, most people totally underestimate the importance of luck in determining what happens to them in all aspects of life. For example, some MBA classes get lucky because they graduate at a time when there are many jobs available. Unfortunately, current students are looking for jobs during a recession. They will have a tougher time than some of their predecessors, not because they are better or worse, but due to something outside their control that we can call luck. They're unlucky with their timing.

So it's a book about business too?

RH: Yes, the role of luck in business is huge. And along with health, wealth, success and happiness, it's one of the main areas covered by the book. For instance, don't think you can predict the market. Instead, accept the lack of predictability and act accordingly. It's almost impossible to out-predict the major stock market indices. So the smart solution depends on finding some mix of index funds and low-risk investments (to save yourself from meltdowns such as the current environment). In short, gain control by giving up control, and expect the unexpected!

Can you offer us some 'free samples' of advice from the book?

Spyros Makridakis: Self-contradictory as it may sound, do not put great hope in the advice of business gurus! Or, for that matter, doctors. Of course you should go to the doctor if you're ill or pregnant. But if you're perfectly healthy, avoid preventive tests like annual check-ups and screenings. There is a vast body of empirical evidence that proves these kinds of tests do not prolong life expectancy or improve your health. And very often, they can be costly, worrying and even risky. Of course, it's easy to give advice like this. But in the book, we present the evidence behind it.

Do you have any personal experiences of 'dancing with chance' that you'd like to share?

SM: Yes, writing the book itself! Writing a book is a time-consuming, high-involvement task. Worse there's no way of predicting its success, and the great majority of books sell less than a thousand copies. At the same time it's obvious that there's no way of having a successful book if it's not written. Once you know how small the odds of success are, the big challenge is 'making luck work for you'. Fortunately, this involves some fun activities, like doing this interview and making our website. But no matter how good the book is and how much work we put in, there's no guarantee that it will be a best seller. And even if it is, there's no guarantee we'll be any happier.